You Asked, We Listened: A Software Tool for Predicting Live-Fire Scores from Device-Based Scores

Back in the 1996 November-December issue of ARMOR,1 Dr. John Morrison and I proposed a strategy that would permit Army National Guard (ARNG) armor unit trainers to complete the device-based portion of their tank gunnery training program in just three Inactive Duty Training (IDT) weekends and afterwards be able to predict which of their crews would be first-run qualifiers on Tank Table VIII (TTVIII). What made this strategy tick was a table that predicted TTVIII gunnery scores on the basis of gunnery scores fired on the Conduct-of-Fire Trainer (COFT). Since appearance of this article, we’ve received telephone calls and e-mail messages from ARNG armor unit trainers wanting to know if they could develop their own prediction tables that would extend to other devices (e.g., the Armor Full-Crew Interactive Simulation Trainer [AFIST]) and perhaps better apply to their specific TTVIII range(s). Not only is the answer to this question yes, but the U. S. Army Research Institute’s field office in Boise, Idaho, has gone ahead and developed a software tool to support this desired capability.

The tool is a floppy-disc-based software program designed to run in a Windows 3.1 or 95 environment. It can calculate predictions for any live-fire evaluation exercise (e.g., TTVIII) that is simulated on a training device (e.g., COFT, AFIST), provided the same scoring procedure is applied to each. You enter the device and live-fire scores and, with the click of a button, the tool automatically performs the statistical analyses needed for calculating the predictions and then saves the results of your work.

The steps you will need to take to create, view, interpret, and use the tool’s predictions are listed under the main menu options shown in Figure 1. You simply click on the desired option to enter, or obtain, the information requested. It’s that easy. Clicking on the “Introduction” button provides you with (a) guidance on what kind of device and live-fire data will need to be collected and then entered, (b) tips on how these data should be collected for best results, and (c) helpful hints on how to navigate successfully through the program. Clicking on the “Create/View” button will lead you to the “Prediction Log” screen, shown in Figure 2, where the results of your work will eventually be stored for permanent access. Clicking on the “Prediction Log” screen’s “Enter New Data takes you to the “Enter Scores” screen, shown in Figure 3, where the device and live-fire data collected earlier are to be entered, along with information needed to identify your data set. This information includes the category of live-fire to be predicted (e.g., tank gunnery), the specific live-fire exercise scores to be predicted (e.g., TTVIII), the training device to be used for prediction (e.g., COFT), the specific device exercise scores from which predictions will be based (e.g., advanced matrix exercise 131), the cutoff score(s) against which predictions will be calculated (e.g., the minimum TTVIII qualification score of 700), the maximum possible live-fire score (e.g., 1,000 on TTVIII), and specific unit/range information. Once you’ve entered the requested information, clicking on the “View Predictions” button sets the program into action and presents you with the resulting predictions. They will be displayed in table

ARMOR — Figure 2. The Prediction Log Screen Figure 1. The Prediction Tool main menu

What’s the Payoff The obtained predictions will allow you to do things now that you haven’t been able to do before. For starters, you will be able to predict tank crew, first-run, livefire performance on your range based on performance obtained on your device(s). Second, you will be able to schedule device-based training more efficiently by targeting only those crews in need of remediation (i.e., those not meeting the device-based live-fire expectancy standard [e.g., 70% probability of first-run qualification] set by the unit commander). Third, you will know when your crews have received enough device-based training (i.e., when they have met this expectancy standard). And lastly, you will save ammunition by allowing only those crews ready for successful live-fire evaluation to proceed to the range. Although the prediction tool software program was developed for use by ARNG armor unit trainers to predict the live-fire tank gunnery performance of their tank crews, it’s theoretically possible that Active Component (AC) armor unit trainers can benefit from the program’s use as well. I say theoretically because we haven’t conducted the preliminary research required to assess the validity of its predictions for AC crews. Despite the need for this research, it might be worthwhile to try the program out to see if its predictions also apply to the AC environment. We’d be interested in hearing about the results. If you have additional questions or comments about the prediction tool software program, or if you would like a copy, contact Dr. Joseph D. Hagman, U. S. Army Research Institute, Reserve Component Training Research Unit, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725; commercial 208-334-9390; fax 208-334- 9394; e-mail address: hagman@ari. army.mil