Dust Clouds on the Horizon, Thoughts of the Future

Dust Clouds on the Horizon Thouahts of the Future by Command Sergeant Major Kurt G. Bensch Jr. Centurions stand quietly talking. Soldiers of the legion wait patiently together. They wait for their orders, for each of them knows other battles wait as dust clouds grown on the horizon. Quietly, nervously, they wait. Soon, orders must come ... My intent is to spark some deep thought about the forces facing the American military’s evolution in the next two decades - forces that will be both economic and political and that will mirror changes in our national policy. My aim is to direct and clariiy the nature and composition of this thought process about this future Army, the Army of the “Pax Americana.” We are in the midst of an era of great uncertainty. We stand proudly, feeling a sense of victory tinged with self satisfaction and a bit of smugness. We are surrounded by our beaten and vanquished foes. Sadly, we are aware our victories have made us less needed and are beginning to understand such terms as “build down” and “peace dividend.” Both terms simply mean we have begun to dismantle parts of the world’s premier combat force. What Army will enter the 21st Century? What will its order of battle be? Many of us here today will only be distant memories, our sons and daughters will be leaders of the Army we will leave them. We absolutely need to leave them a vigorous Army and one that will have worldwide capabilities, an Army that will be the power that allows Americans to defend its national interest anywhere, anytime. From today’s 26-division and 750,000-soldier Army, how far can we go? What will the end product look like? Suggestions, comments and ideas follow. Remember that I only seek to cause you to think! Our Army must continue to provide special forces of many types. Many of our allies still hesitate to let our troops fight on their soil. Small units, training teams, and advisors must continue to be high quality and readily available to countries desiring and needing them. A key area of concem will be native language speakers, who not only speak a foreign language, but can also blend in with indigenous populations. The early defeat of a guerrilla army can bring a quick end to evolving conflicts that threaten to involve the main body of our heavy forces. Our heavy and light divisions must be able to deploy rapidly anywhere in this troubled world. If the next world war is fought in a theater where we have no friendly sea or airports, how will we deploy those divisions? When was the last time we practiced WWII-style amphibious landings? A national training center on a coastal area then becomes a major concern for planners and trainers. Training these expensive divisions will become increasingly difficult as the budget shrinks. Another major factor will be the rising percent-ARMOR - January-February 1992 47 ages of female soldiers integrated into these divisions. Is America ready to send its first female tankers and grunts into combat? What role will Reserve Components play in this future Army? What capabilities should they have, and what percentage of the total force should they make up? The Iraqi war has shown us that much thought will have to be given to the composition and training levels of all reserve units. Should Reserve Component capabilities mirror the Active Force capability, or should they become an augmenting force of special abilities and roles? Emphasis must also be given to the activation process. The need to speed up this process will become critical as we become a smaller active component once again, we can only begin to imagine paying the costs on this level of restructuring. Another area of great importance concerns the types of weapons we will need to develop, upgrade, or purchase in the future. The recent events in Southwest Asia have revived many old arguments about the mix of the future Army. Are tanks obsolete; has artillery been replaced by rocketry; and who needs infantry divisions anymore? Each branch has its arguments both for and against them. However, most are driven by the growing battle for a share of the decreasing budget. Consideration must also be given to the rate of improvement for military oriented technology. With the collapse of the Soviet Army’s offensive capability and a worldwide shortage of research dollars, will defense contractors simply abandon military research and development projects as too expensive and risky? How many will simply drop out of the defense market and move into more stable and proft-able civilian markets? We may become a second rate country in defense research and development and thus become even more dependent on foreign technology in order to maintain a qualitative edge. Additionally, the rapid proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons is also an area that needs our attention. This growth may cause many smaller nations to feel they are on a tactical par with us and make their leaders more comfortable about challenging us worldwide. If we lose our qualitative lead, what kind of quantitative superiority will we be forced to maintain? What will future benefits packages be for our soldiers? Where should we put these dollars - in pay and allowances, or in enhanced retirement packages, or will we even be able to retain our better educated and technically advanced soldiers? Recruiting emphasis may have to shift to that of “A lifetime career.” In order to recoup our training investment, there may be no choice but to alter the ways we enlist and reenlist soldiers. The ability of our trainers to train in a tight budget environment becomes the key to success. Resource availability and time constraints will always influence the training management process. But how much more difficult will the process become? The educational requirements for NCOs are currently aimed at technical and tactical competence. We will have to add a third requirement, that of teaching ability. This requirement will be caused by a more technologically sophisticated Army and by the need to use limited resources more efficiently. FM 25-1 01, Baffle Focused Training, will become the most important book for all trainers and planners. Ultimately, all seems to come back to one theme, the availability of dollars. The dollar amount available drives all of the segments of the big picture. How soon will the budget picture be clear? What size and composition of forces will we be allowed to retain, and will we be able to afford the type of Army envisioned here? As modem day centurions, it will be the responsibility of the NCO Corps to implement the decisions of our political leaders. It would serve us all well to become more aware of the forces and processes that shape the Army of the future. We owe it to the Army, the country, and most of all, to those soldiers we lead. Command Sergeant Major Kurt G. Bensch Jr. is the command sergeant major of 6th Cavalry Brigade, Ft. Hood, Texas. 48 ARMOR - January-February 7992